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Out of Control:
The New Biology of Machines,
Social Systems and the Economic World
By Kevin Kelly
Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1994
ABSTRACT - This
ground-breaking, insightful work pulls important new pattern-building findings from fields
as diverse as computer science, biology, physics, and economics, relates them to the new
worlds of complexity, chaos theory, and post-Darwin evolution and lays out the
implications for creating complex organizations and systems of all types. Many of his
findings are contrary to management traditions and practices.
Key Points:
As organizations become more
complex and the need for adaptability increases, leaders will need to adopt lessons from
natures complex systems (such as the critical role of variation and imperfections),
which, in many cases, suggest non-traditional approaches to leadership and organization
building.
Complex systems (organizations)
need to be built up incrementally from simple systems which work.
Suggests that co-evolution,
collaboration among organizations is a better strategy for insuring long-term
survivability and stability than competition
Provides guidance to
organizations from natures complex systems: distributed; decentralized;
collaborative; adaptive.
Learn and follow the principles
of evolution, like punctuated equilibrium, instead of trying to engineer the development
of complex organizations.
The powerful link between
learning and successful evolution is stressed
Complex systems have the power to
make large scale change through large, rather than incremental shifts.
There is a desired number of
connections among components of a system. This helps an organization live on the edge
between chaos and stability and thus insure is survivability.
Makes a case for growth as
natural law - presents seven trends underlying this organic evolution.
Despite the complexity of
systems, certain types of prediction are possible. This, along with organizational
flexibility achieved though decentralization and redundancy, foster successful adaptation.
Summarizes principle ideas from
the book which apply to the creation of complex organizations
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Hive Mind Key
Point: As organizations become more complex and the need for adaptability increases,
leaders will need to adopt lessons from natures complex systems (such as the
critical role of variation and imperfections), which, in many cases, suggest
non-traditional approaches to leadership and organization building.
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"It seems that the things we
find most interesting in the universe are all dwelling near the web end...The class of
systems to which all of the above belong is variously called: networks, complex adaptive
systems, swarm systems, vivisystems, or collective systems. Organizationally, each of
these is a collection of many (thousands) of autonomous members. "Autonomous"
means that each member reacts individually according to internal rules and the state of
its local environment. This is opposed to obeying orders from a center, or reacting in
lock step to the overall environment. These autonomous members are highly connected to
each other, but not to a central hub. They thus form a peer network. Since there is no
center of control, the management and heart of the system are said to be decentrally
distributed within the system, as a hive is administered. ...One theme of his book is that
distributed artificial vivisystems...provide people with some of the attractions of
organic systems, but also some of the drawbacks." P. 21-22
Benefits of swarm systems -
adaptable, evolvable, resilient, boundless. p. 22-23
Disadvantages of swarm systems -
non-optimal, non-controllable, non-predictable, non-understandable, non-immediate. p.
23-24
"As our inventions shift
from the linear, predictable, causal attributes of the mechanical motor, to the
crisscrossing, unpredictable, and fuzzy attributes of living systems, we need to shift our
sense of what we expect from our machines (or organizations, my note). p. 24
A simple rule of thumb may help:
For jobs where supreme control is demanded, good old clockware is the way to go. Where
supreme adaptability is required, out-of-control swarmware is what you want." p. 24
"The inefficiencies of a
network - all that redundancy and ricocheting vectors, things going from here to there and
back just to get across the street - encompassing imperfection rather than rejecting it. A
network nurtures small failures in order that large failures dont happen as often.
It is its capacity to hold error rather than scuttle it that makes the distributed being
fertile ground for learning, adaptation, and evolution." p. 26
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Machines
with an Attitude
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Key Point:
Complex systems (like organizations) need to be built up incrementally from simple systems
which work. |
"When something works,
dont mess with it; build on top of it." p. 39
"A brain and body are made
up the same way. From the bottom up. Instead of towns, you begin with simple behavior -
instincts and reflexes. You make a little circuit that does a simple job, and you get a
lot of them going. Then you overlay a secondary level of complex behavior that can emerge
out of that bunch of working reflexes. The original level keeps working whether of not the
second layer work or not. But when the second layer manages to produce more complex
behavior, it subsumes the action of the layer below it. Here is the generic recipe for
distributed control...It can be applied to most creations: 1. Do simple things first. 2.
Learn to do them flawlessly. 3. Add new layers of activity over the results of the simple
task. 4. Dont change the simple things. 5. Make the new layer work as flawlessly as
the simple. 6. Repeat, ad infinitum. This script could also be called a recipe for
managing complexity of any type, for that is what it is." p. 41
"In the human management of
distributed control, hierarchies of a certain type will proliferate rather than
diminish...While authoritarian "top-down" hierarchies will retreat, no
distributed system can survive for long without nested hierarchies of lateral
"bottom-up" control. As influence flows peer to peer, it coheres into a chunk- a
whole organelle - which then becomes the bottom unit in a larger web of slower actions.
Over time a multi-level organization forms around the percolating-up control: fast at the
bottom, slow at the top. The second important aspect of generic distributed control is
that the chunking of control must be done incrementally from the bottom. It is impossible
to take a complex problem and rationally unravel the mess into logical interacting pieces.
Such well-intentioned efforts inevitably fail." p. 45
"The law is concise:
Distributed control has to be grown from simple local control. Complexity must be grown
from simple systems that already work." p. 46
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Co-evolution |
Key Point:
Suggests that co-evolution, collaboration among organizations is a better strategy for
insuring long-term survivability and stability than competition. |
"Heres the news: half
of the living world is codependent!...The surge of alliance-making in the 1990s among
large corporations...is another facet of an increasing, co-evolutionary economic world.
Rather than eat or compete with a competitor, the two form an alliance - a
symbiosis." p. 75
"Paul Ehrlich sees
co-evolution pushing two competitors into "obligate cooperation." He wrote,
" Its against the interests of either predator or prey to eliminate the
enemy" That is clearly irrational, yet that is clearly a force that drives
nature." p. 76
"Every complex adaptive
organization faces a fundamental tradeoff. A creature must balance perfecting a skill of
trait (building up legs to run faster) against experimenting with new traits (wings). It
can never do all things at once. This daily dilemma is labeled the tradeoff between
exploration and exploitation." p. 87
"It turns out that no matter
what clever strategy you engineer or evolve in a world laced by chameleon-on-a-mirror
loops, if it is applied as a perfectly pure rule that you obey absolutely, it will not be
evolutionary resilient to competing strategies. That is, a competing strategy will figure
out how to exploit your rule in the long run. A little touch of randomness (mistakes,
imperfections), on the other hand, actually creates long-term stability in co-evolutionary
worlds by allowing some strategies to prevail for relative eons by not being so easily
aped." p.89
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"The highly connected loops
of co-evolutionary conflict mean the whole can reward (or at times cripple) all members.
Axelrod told me, "One of the earliest and most important insights from game theory
was that nonzero-sum games had very different strategic implications than zero-sum games.
In zero-sum games whatever hurts the other guy is good for you. In non-zero-sum games you
can both do well, or both do poorly."" p. 89
"Perhaps the most useful
lesson of co-evolution for "wannabe" gods is that in co-evolutionary worlds
control and secrecy are counterproductive. You cant control, and revelation works
better than concealment. "In zero-sum games you always try to hide your
strategy," says Axelrod. "But in non-zero-sum games you might want to announce
your strategy in public so the other players need to adapt to it."" p. 90
"In the Network Era - that
age we have just entered - dense communications is creating artificial worlds ripe for
emergent co-evolution, spontaneous self-organization, and win-win cooperation. In this
Era, openness wins, central control is lost, and stability is a state of perpetual
almost-falling ensured by constant error." p. 90
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Network
Economics |
Key Point:
Provides guidance to organizations from natures complex systems: distributed;
decentralized; collaborative; adaptive. |
"The challenge is simply
stated: Extend the companys internal networks outward to include all those with whom
the company interacts in the marketplace. Spin a grand web to include employees,
suppliers, regulators, and customers, they; they all become part of your companys
collective being. They are the company." p. 188
"One can imagine the future
shape of companies by stretching them until they are pure network. a company that was pure
network would have the following traits: distributed, decentralized, collaborative, and
adaptive. p. 189
"Distributed - There
is not single location of the business. It dwells among many place concurrently." p.
189
"Decentralized - Now,
when the economy shifts daily, owning the whole chain of production is a liability....In
short, networks make outsourcing feasible, profitable, and competitive." p. 191
"Collaborative -
Networking internal jobs can make so much economic sense that sometimes vital functions
are outsourced to competitors, to mutual benefit. Enterprises may be collaborators on one
undertaking and competitors on another, at the same time....The metaphor for corporations
is shifting from the tightly coupled, tightly bounded organism to the loosely coupled,
loosely bounded ecosystem." p. 193
"Adaptive - "DESPITE
MY SUNNY FORECAST for the network economy, there is much about it that is worrisome. These
are the same concerns that accompany other large decentralized, self-making systems: *You
cant understand them. *You have less control. *They dont optimize well."
p. 194
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Artificial
Evolution |
Key Points: Learn
and follow the principles of evolution, like punctuated equilibrium, instead of trying to
engineer the development of complex organizations. |
"To scientists, the most
exhilarating news to come out of Rays artificial evolution machine is that his small
worlds display what seems to be punctuated equilibrium. For relatively long periods of
time, the ratio of populations remain in a steady tango of give and take with only the
occasional extinction or birth of a new species. Then, in a relative blink, this
equilibrium is punctuated by a rapid burst of rolling change with many newcomers and
eclipsing of the old. For a short period change is rampant. Then things sort out and
stasis and equilibrium reigns again. The current interpretation of fossil evidence on
Earth is that this pattern predominates in nature. Stasis is the norm; change occurs in
bouts." p. 289
"There are only two ways we
know of to make extremely complicated things," says Hillis. "One is by
engineering, and the other is evolution. And of the two, evolution will make the more
complex." p. 295
"Little dumb creatures in
parallel that can "write" better software than humans can suggests to Ray a
solution for our desire for parallel software....When it comes to distributed network
kinds of things, Ray says, "Evolution is the natural way to program." The
natural way to program! Thats an ego-deflating lesson. Humans should stick to what
they do best: small, elegant, minimal systems that are fast and deep. Let natural
evolution (artificially injected) do the messy big work." p. 308
"The trouble of evolution is
not entirely out of our control; surrendering some control is simply a tradeoff we make
when we employ it. The things we are proud of in engineering - precision, predictability,
exactness, and correctness - are diluted when evolution is introduced. These have to be
diluted because survivability in a world of accidents, unforeseen circumstances, shifting
environments - in short, the real world - demands a fuzzier, looser, more adaptable, less
precise stance. Life is not controlled. Vivisystems are not predictable. Living creatures
are not exact." p. 310
"Give up control, and
well artificially evolve new worlds and undreamed-of richness. Let go, and it will
blossom." p. 311
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The
Structure of Organized Change |
Key
Point: The powerful link between learning and successful evolution is stressed. |
"Despite the confusion about
the word "evolution," our strongest terms of change are rooted in the organic:
grow, develop, mutate, learn, metamorphose, adapt. Nature is the realm of ordered change.
p. 353
"Only in the last couple of
years has the exhilarating link between learning, behavior, adaptation, and evolution even
begun to be investigated...A number of researchers...have shown clearly and unequivocally
how a population of organisms that are learning - that is, exploring their fitness
possibilities by changing behavior - evolve faster than a population that are not
learning." p. 358
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Post-Darwinism |
Key Point: Complex
systems have the power to large scale change through large, rather than incremental
shifts. |
"As the French evolutionist
Pierre Grasse said, "Variation is one thing, evolution quite another; this cannot be
emphasized strongly enough...Mutations provide change, but not progress." So while
natural selection may be responsible for microchange - a trend in variations - no one can
say indisputably that it is responsible for macrochange - an open-ended creation of an
unexpected novel form and progress toward increasing complexity." p. 370
"But intriguing suspicions
now accumulating in the study of complex systems, particularly complex systems that adapt,
learn, and evolve, suggest Darwin was wrong in his most revolutionary premise. Life is
largely clumped into parcels and only mildly plastic. Species either persist of die. They
transmute into something else under only the most mysterious and uncertain conditions. By
and large, complex things fall into categories and the categories persist. Human
institutions clumps - churches, departments, companies - find it easier to grow than to
evolve.
"Required to adapt too far
from their origins, most institutions will die. "Organic" entities are not
infinitely malleable because complex systems cannot easily be gradually modified in a
sequence of functional intermediates. A complex system is severely limited in the
directions and ways it can evolve, because it is a hierarchy composed entirely of
sub-entities, which are also limited in their room for adaptation because they are
composed of sub-sub-entities, and so on down the tower. It should be no surprise, then, to
find that evolution works in quantum steps. The given constituents of an organism can
collectively make this or that, but not everything is between this and that. The
hierarchical nature of the whole prevents it from reaching all the possible states it
might theoretically hit. At the same time, the hierarchical arrangement of the whole gives
it power to make some large-scale shifts." p. 381-382
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The
Butterfly Sleeps |
Key Point:
There is a desired number of connections among components of a system. This helps an
organization live on the edge between chaos and stability and thus insure its
survivability. |
"Deep down Kauffman felt
that his systems built themselves. In some way he hoped to discover, evolutionary systems
controlled their own structure. From the first glimpse of his visionary network image, he
had a hunch that in those connections lay the answer to evolutions
self-governance." p. 398
"As Kauffman increased the
average number of links between nodes, the system became more resilient, "bouncing
back" when perturbed. The system could maintain stability while the environment
changed. It would evolve. The completely unexpected finding was that beyond certain level
of linking density, continued connectivity would only decrease the adaptability of the
system as a whole....In the long run, an overly linked system was as debilitating as a mob
of uncoordinated loners" p. 399
"At the ideal number of
connections, the ideal amount of information flowed between agents, and the system as a
whole found the optimal solutions consistently. If their environment was changing rapidly,
this meant that the network remained stable - persisting as a whole over time." p.
400
"He (Langton) says that
systems that are most adaptive are so loose they are a hairsbreadth away from being out of
control. Life, then, is a system that is neither stagnant with non-communication nor
grid-locked with too much communication. Rather life is a vivsystem tuned "to the
edge of chaos" - that lambda point where there is just enough information flow to
make everything dangerous." p. 402
"Self-tuning may be the
mysterious key to evolution that doesnt stop - the holy grail of open-ended
evolution. Chris Langton formally describes open-ended evolution as a system that succeeds
in ceaselessly self-tuning itself to higher and higher level of complexity, or in his
imagery, a system that succeeds in gaining control over more and more parameters affecting
its evolvability and staying balanced on the edge." p. 403
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Rising Flow |
Key Point:
Makes the case for growth as a natural law and presents seven trends underlying this
organic evolution. |
"The search for a Second Law
of Biology, a law of rising order, is unconsciously behind much of the search for deeper
evaluations and the quest for hyperlife." p. 405
"The order accumulated by
the rising wave serves as a plank to extend itself, using energy from outside, into the
next realm of further order. As long a Carnots force flows downhill and cools the
universe, the rising flow can steal heat to flow uphill in places, building itself high by
pulling on its bootstraps." p. 405
"Caveats aside, I discern
about seven large trends or directions emerging from the ceaseless, hourly toil of organic
evolution. These trends, as far as anyone can tell, are also the seven trends that will
bias artificial evolution when it goes marathon; they may be said to be the Trends of
Hyper-evolution: Irreversibility, Increasing Complexity, Increasing Diversity, Increasing
Number of Individuals, Increasing Specialization, Increasing Codependency, Increasing
Evolvability." p. 412
"Evolution is a
conglomeration of many processes which form a society of evolutions. As evolution has
evolved over time, evolution itself has increased in diversity and complexity and
evolvability." p. 417
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Prediction
Machinery |
Key Point:
Despite the complexity of systems, certain types of prediction are possible. This, along
with organizational flexibility achieved though decentralization and redundancy, foster
successful adaptation.. |
"....prediction is a form of
control. It is a type of control particularly suited to distributed systems. By
anticipating the future, a vivisystem can shift its stance to preadapt to it, and in this
way control its destiny. John Holland says, "Anticipation is what complex adaptive
systems do."" p. 420
"...the character of chaos
carries both good news and bad news. The bad news is that very little, if anything, is
predicable far into the future. The good news - the flip side of chaos - is that in the
short term, more may be more predictable than it first seems...."There is order is
chaos."" p. 424
"The short answer is that
tiny errors (caused by limited information) compound into grievous errors when extended
very far into the future." p. 426
"Most of the time most of a
complex system may not be forecastable, but some small part of it may be for short
times." p. 428
"...the work of Theodore
Modis, whose 1992 book, Predictions, nicely sums up the case for utility and
believability of predictions. Modis addresses three types of found order in the greater
web of human interactions. Each variety forms a pocket of predictability at certain times.
Invariants. The natural
and unconscious tendency for all organisms to optimize their behavior instills in that
behavior "invariants" that change very little over time...
Growth Curve.
Growing things share several universal characteristics. Among them are a lifespan that can
be plotted as an S-shaped curve: slow birth, steep growth, slow decline..."What is
hidden under the graceful shape of the S-curve is that fact that natural growth obeys a
strict law." This law says that the shape of the ending is symmetrical to the shape
of the beginning...
Cyclic Waves. According
to Modis, cyclic phenomenon in nature can infuse a cyclic flavor to systems running within
it." p. 436-437
- "Together, these three modes of prediction
suggests that at certain moments of heightened visibility, the invisible pattern of order
becomes clear to those paying attention." p. 437
"...we know that feedback
loops alone are insufficient to breed the behaviors of the vivissystems we find most
interesting. There are two additional types of complexity (there may be others) the
researchers in this book have found necessary in order to give birth to a full spectrum of
vivisystem character: distributed being and open-ended evolution..." p. 448
"The key insight uncovered
by the study of complex systems in recent years is this: the only way for a system to
evolve into something new is to have a flexible structure...This is why distributed being
is so important to learning and evolving systems. A decentralized, redundant organization
can flex without distorting its function, and this it can adapt. It can manage change. We
call that growth. Direct feedback models...can achieve stabilization - one attribute of
living systems - but they cant learn, grow, diversity - three essential complexities
for a model of changing culture or life." p. 448
"But we cannot import
evolution and learning without exporting control." p. 448
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The Nine
Laws of God |
Key Point:
Summarizes principle ideas from the book which apply to the creation of complex
organizations. |
"Out of nothing, nature
makes something....How do you make something from nothing? Although nature knows this
trick, we havent learned much just by watching her. We have learned more by our
failures in creating complexity and by combining these lessons with small successes in
imitating and understanding natural systems. So from the frontiers of computer science,
and the edges of biological research, and the odd corners of interdisciplinary
experimentation, I have compiled The Nine Laws of God governing the incubation of
somethings from nothing...These nine laws are the organizing principles that can be found
operating in systems as diverse as biological evolution and SimCity.
Distribute being. The
spirit of a beehive, the behavior of an economy, the thinking of a supercomputer, and the
life in me are distributed over a multitude of smaller units (which themselves may be
distributed). When the sum of the parts can add up to more than the parts, then that extra
being (that something from nothing) is distributed among the parts...All the mysteries we
find most interesting - life, intelligence, evolution - are found in the soil of large
distributed systems.
Control from the bottom up.
When everything is connected to everything in a distributed network, everything happens at
once. When everything happens at once, wide and fast moving problems simply route around
any central authority. Therefore overall governance must arise from the most humble
interdependent acts done locally in parallel, and not from a central command...
Cultivate increasing returns.
Each time you use an idea, a language, or a skill you strengthen it, reinforce it, and
make it more likely to be used again...Anything which alters its environment to increase
production of itself is playing the game of increasing returns. And all large, sustaining
systems play at the game...Life on Earth alters Earth to beget more life...
Grow by chunking. The only
way to make a complex system that works is to begin with a simple system that works.
Attempts to instantly install highly complex organization...without growing it, inevitably
lead to failure... Complexity is created then, by assembling it incrementally from simple
modules that can operate independently.
Maximize the fringes. In
heterogeneity is creation of the world. A uniform entity must adapt to the world by
occasional earth-shattering revolutions, one of which is sure to kill it. A diverse
heterogeneous entity, on the other hand, can adapt to the world in a thousand daily
mini-revolutions, staying in a state of permanent, but never fatal churning. Diversity
favors borders, the outskirts, hidden corners, moments of chaos, and isolated clusters. In
economic, ecological, evolutionary, and institutional models, a healthy fringe speeds
adaptation, increases resilience, and is almost always the source of innovations.
Pursue no optima; have
multiple goals. Simple machines can be efficient, but complex adaptive machinery
cannot be...Rather than strive for optimization of any function, a large system can only
survive by "satisficing" (making "good enough") a multitude of
functions. For instance, an adaptive system must trade off between exploiting a known path
of success (optimizing a current strategy), or diverting resources to exploring new paths
(thereby wasting energy trying less efficient methods)....forget elegance; if it works,
its beautiful.
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Seek persistent disequilibrium.
Neither consistent nor relentless change will support a creation. A good creation, like
good jazz, must balance the stable formula with frequent out-of-kilter notes... A
Something is persistent disequilibrium - a continuous state of surfing forever on the edge
between never stopping but never falling....
Change change itself. When
extremely large systems are built up out of complicated systems, then each system begins
to influence and ultimately change the organization of other systems." p. 468-471
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